By Carrie Muehling
BLOOMINGTON – Grain prices continue to drift lower based on good planting weather for much of the country last week.
“A lot of corn finished up over the last few days, even some beans in the ground,” said Aaron Curtis, commodity risk consultant with Mid-Co Commodities. “Some rain on top of that, and the key is some warmer rain.”
Planters nationwide were very active over the last week to 10 days, with 55 percent of the nation’s corn crop now planted. Areas of the southern U.S. finally saw some needed drier weather, allowing for some farmers there to catch up.
“The net result of that is that the market just doesn’t have a big incentive to rally here with the weather continuing to be favorable for both planting progress and crop conditions,” said Curtis.
Lower grain prices at some point should spur demand, but Curtis said that has not happened yet. Ethanol margins have improved, but there is not a lot of additional export demand. Lots of competition remains from South America where there is also plenty of supply.
The next USDA crop report is due out May 12. Curtis said that report sometimes holds a bit more interest because it is the first look at 15/16 crop. He said the market is approaching an oversold condition on corn and wheat, so there could be some technical bounces but those are few and far between.
Curtis said one pressing issue is what’s happening with avian influenza, especially in states like Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
“That leaves a little bit of a negative spin to the market, especially on corn and soybean meal. We’ve seen some negative reactions in the markets just based on that, trying to figure out what that’s going to be for the feed residual number,” said Curtis.
He said the trade will also continue to watch the farmer selling pattern, which has been inconsistent on corn. Neither old crop or new crop is moving much. Curtis said good basis levels and tightening spreads should encourage that farmer movement, but so far that hasn’t been the case.
Listen to the complete interview with Aaron Curtis:
Carrie Muehling can be reached at carrie@wjbc.com.
