Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is emerging as the clear Republican favorite to take on Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2026, with a new survey showing the incumbent’s grip on deep-blue New York may be far weaker than Democrats want to admit.
A new survey from pollster J.L. Partners finds Stefanik would crush Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in a GOP primary and then run neck-and-neck with Hochul in a general election.
Among 400 likely Republican primary voters, Stefanik commands a staggering 74% support, while Blakeman languishes at just 5%, with most of the rest undecided.
The primary poll, conducted Nov. 9-10 among a representative sample of GOP voters and weighted for gender, age, ethnicity, and region, carries a 4.9% margin of error.
Name recognition tells the story: more than three-quarters of Republican voters view Stefanik favorably, while more than 75% either don’t know or have no opinion of Blakeman.
As J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson put it, “Stefanik seems to dominate the Republican vote. It’s a done deal,” the New York Post reported.
The general election numbers are where Democrats may start to sweat.
In a head-to-head matchup, Hochul leads Stefanik just 46% to 43% — well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error — effectively a statistical tie.
Against Blakeman, Hochul’s lead widens to 47%–36%, underscoring that Republicans’ strongest chance to unseat her is with Stefanik at the top of the ticket.
The survey of 500 likely voters, also taken Nov. 9-10, reveals a deeper warning sign for the incumbent: only 37% say they would vote to reelect Hochul or even consider it, while 55% say it’s “time for someone new.”
That spells trouble for a governor already under fire over soaring costs, persistent population outmigration, and controversial criminal-justice policies, which include cashless bail and parole reforms that critics say have fueled a sense of lawlessness across the state.
Those frustrations are fueling Stefanik’s rise.
A member of House Republican leadership now in her sixth term, Stefanik has made public safety and affordability central to her message, aligning with President Donald Trump’s push to crack down on “cashless bail.”
Republican leaders are taking notice.
As Stefanik formally launched her gubernatorial bid, 12 GOP state senators — led by Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt — have already endorsed her, calling the congresswoman “the fighter New York needs” to reverse what they describe as the radical progressive agenda coming out of Albany.
Nine county executives from across the state have also lined up behind her, citing Hochul’s “failed progressive policies” that they say are driving families and businesses out of New York.
As Johnson noted to the Post, a heavy Democrat turnout could rescue Hochul, but he pointed to growing GOP registration and grassroots anger, including backlash over the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s incoming mayor, as signs that the political ground is shifting.
J.L. Partners, which correctly projected Trump’s popular vote and Electoral College victory over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, now rates the 2026 governor’s race as essentially a coin flip.
Newsmax Wires contributed to this report.
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