Billionaire Bill Gates appears to have shifted his stance on the risks posed by climate change.
In a memo published by Gates Notes on Monday night, the Microsoft co-founder, who has poured billions into combating global warming, urged a move away from what he called a “doomsday outlook” and toward improving living conditions in developing nations.
“Although climate change will have serious consequences — particularly for people in the poorest countries — it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” Gates wrote. “People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future.”
The 70-year-old philanthropist’s statement marks a notable change from his 2021 book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.”
The essay came a week before the U.N. COP30 climate summit in Brazil. Gates said he will not attend this year’s event and instead wants to emphasize global health, poverty, and resilience.
In his memo, Gates argued that climate change is “serious” but that governments and philanthropists must balance environmental goals with investments that help people adapt.
“We can’t cut funding for health and development — programs that help people stay resilient in the face of climate change — to do it,” he wrote. “It’s time to put human welfare at the center of our climate strategies.”
The new memo coincides with major changes in Gates’ climate ventures.
Earlier this year, his Breakthrough Energy group dismantled its policy division and trimmed staff.
In May, the Gates Foundation announced plans to wind down over the coming years, after spending billions on climate-related efforts, including $1.4 billion to aid farmers adapting to hotter conditions.
Gates has not stopped investing in clean energy.
TerraPower, his nuclear energy firm, recently won key federal approval for a next-generation reactor design. Yet he now stresses that measuring success by global temperature alone is misguided.
“Temperature is not the best way to measure our progress on climate,” he wrote, arguing that alarmist messaging can hinder practical solutions.
In an interview with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Gates said, “Climate is super important but has to be considered in terms of overall human welfare. I didn’t pick that position because everybody agrees with it — it’s just the intellectually right answer.”
He called for a “strategic pivot” from short-term emissions targets to long-term human progress, saying the world must prioritize innovations that “have the greatest impact on human welfare.”
Gates’ shift also comes amid political headwinds.
The New York Times noted that some observers see his moderation as an attempt to “move to the center” during a period when President Donald Trump and other Republicans are skeptical of climate spending.
Despite political divides, Gates insists optimism, not fear, will drive change.
“We’ve made great progress,” he wrote on Gates Notes. “We need to keep backing breakthroughs that will help the world reach zero emissions — while helping everyone live healthier, better lives.”
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