Ukraine’s missile strike on a major thermal power plant in Belgorod this weekend has plunged large parts of the Russian city into darkness, in what analysts say could represent a game-changing escalation in Kyiv’s strategy.
The Belgorod Thermal Power Station, a 60-megawatt facility supplying over one-third of the city’s heating and electricity needs, was hit alongside the nearby Luch substation, according to Russian social media and Ukrainian reports.
Belgorod, a city of around 350,000 people located just 25 miles from the Ukrainian border, is a key logistical hub for Moscow’s war effort.
The attack left significant portions of the city without power and highlighted Ukraine’s ability to target Russia’s civilian infrastructure, mirroring Moscow’s systematic campaign against Ukraine’s own energy grid since 2022.
“Russia has made blackouts and terror a part of its war strategy. Now it is facing the same price,” said Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office.
“A symmetrical response to Russia’s strikes on infrastructure will accelerate the path to ending the war,” he added. “The price for Russia will be high.”
Russia relies heavily on thermal power plants, which generate electricity by burning fuel — typically natural gas, coal, or oil — to produce steam that drives turbines.
These facilities remain the backbone of Russia’s grid, accounting for more than half of the country’s electricity production.
Russia operates hundreds of such plants, ranging from massive complexes supplying Moscow and St. Petersburg to regional facilities like Belgorod’s station.
By striking these plants, Ukraine threatens not only local power supplies but also the political stability that hinges on keeping Russian cities warm and lit as winter approaches.
“Power outages in Russian cities are not just a military problem; they’re a political one,” explained Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at University College London. “[Russian President Vladimir] Putin needs to maintain the perception of control and stability.
“If ordinary Russians start facing rolling blackouts in major urban centers, the Kremlin’s narrative of strength unravels.”
Until now, Ukraine has largely concentrated its long-range strikes on Russia’s oil refineries, aiming to choke Moscow’s revenues and fuel supplies. That campaign has forced Russia to shut down or scale back production at more than a dozen facilities since early 2024.
But the Belgorod attack suggests Kyiv may be broadening its targets.
“If Ukraine is now moving toward systematically degrading Russia’s power plants, it presents Putin with a major dilemma,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Does he double down and risk public anger over blackouts, or divert resources from the front to protect infrastructure deep inside Russia?”
For Ukraine, the calculus is clear.
Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s grid for three winters in a row, destroying transformers, substations, and thermal stations.
Millions of Ukrainians endured freezing blackouts, while hospitals and water systems ran on generators. Kyiv argues that striking Russia’s grid is both militarily effective and morally justified.
“Targeting civilian power in Russia is not escalation — it’s reciprocity,” said Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko in a statement. “They tried to freeze us into submission. Now Russians will feel what they’ve inflicted on us.”
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